Arije ANTINORI

High-Risk Criminal Networks as a Proxy Actor in Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI): A Hybrid Threat to Public and National Security

Within the contemporary European security environment, the potential for High-Risk Criminal Networks (HRCNs) to be exploited as proxy actors in Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) represents a novel and complex hybrid threat. This paper introduces a hypothesis where both state and non-state actors leverage these criminal networks to implement advanced tactics that jeopardize the public and national security of the European Union (EU). This study examines how such networks could potentially be engaged to infiltrate, disrupt, and manipulate socio-political systems within EU Member States. The integration of cyber capabilities with traditional criminal activities by these networks introduces a multifaceted challenge to the existing security paradigms. This scenario explores the plausible deniability afforded to foreign actors using criminal proxies for activities ranging from cyber-attacks to strategic disinformation campaigns, thus complicating the attribution of these destabilizing actions. The paper delineates the operations of these criminal networks across the main domains each reflecting critical aspects of the hybrid threat landscape. The discussion extends to the implications of such proxy activities for EU public security. It highlights the potential erosion of public trust and the manipulation of societal narratives, which can significantly undermine the stability and cohesion of EU Member States. To effectively counter, prevent and anticipate the use of high-risk criminal networks in FIMI, the author emphasizes the urgent need for developing ad hoc training programs, based on scenario planning and red team exercises, tailored for Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) with the aim to enhance criminal intelligence analysis, situational awareness, and operational readiness, that represent the backbone of a proactive security strategy to deal with the unique challenges posed by the 21st century hybrid threats scenario.